Football Betting Improvement is a series of articles describing some well-known and well-used statistical techniques that will help the soccer player to make more informed betting. Each technique has its own advantages and disadvantages, and using it in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together, they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will explain in detail how a particular method works, giving you enough information so you can go ahead and create your own expectations. We’ll also give you information about where you can actually find websites that use this technology to understand our weekly football betting tips.
The statistical techniques featured in this set of articles will help you make a better decision about the match or matches you are betting on.
In this article we will describe the well-known simple sequencing method. The simple sequencing method is not just a method, there are many ways to design a simple sequencing method and you can probably design your own. The way in which the simple sequencing method is implemented in Footyforecast 2.0 and on 1X2Monster is by using the weighting factor in each series of games.
Here are the basic rules …
Multiple matches are used to look at the forecast history. So, let’s say our team has the following results (the most recent results are on the right-hand side):
W D L L W
This would give them the following points:
3 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 3 = 7
Now, to compute the current shape, a weight is assigned to each of them, so the oldest match is multiplied by 1 until the most recent match is multiplied by 5. Of course, this will vary depending on how many matches it uses, but in this example it gives us the following:
3 * 1 + 1 * 2 + 0 * 3 + 0 * 4 + 3 * 5 = 20 points
Now suppose that the visiting team that played the previous team has the following record:
They will possess:
3 * 1 + 3 * 2 + 1 * 3 + 1 * 4 + 1 * 5 = 21 points.
Difference in key points versus exit = 20-21 = -1.
Depending on how this is arranged it could represent an away win, i.e. all matches with a point difference of 0 = an away win, or it could be classified as a draw.
Let’s look at a simple example …
For example, we’ll use the last ten matches each team played. These are the last ten home matches for the home team and the last ten away games for the away team. The match between Middlesbrough and Bolton Wanderers in the English Premier League which was held on January 20, 2007.
L L W W W D L D W W
It is everything
0 * 1 + 0 * 2 + 3 * 3 + 3 * 4 + 3 * 5 + 1 * 6 + 0 * 7 + 1 * 8 + 3 * 9 + 3 * 10
0 + 0 + 9 + 12 + 15 + 6 + 0 + 8 + 27 + 30 = 107
L W W W D L L W W L
It is everything
0 * 1 + 3 * 2 + 3 * 3 + 3 * 4 + 1 * 5 + 0 * 6 + 0 * 7 + 3 * 8 + 3 * 9 + 0 * 10
0 + 6 + 9 + 12 + 5 + 0 + 0 + 24 + 27 + 0 = 83
Therefore, the difference is
107 – 83 = +24
This can be identified as a home win, but depending on the threshold levels chosen, it can be classified as a draw.
Your turn now…
You can, of course, choose to use different values than described above, and by experimenting you may get better values to use. You can also choose to use all home and away matches for each team on your accounts rather than just home games for the home team and away matches for the away team. You can choose different thresholds than those shown above. You may also find it helpful to plot actual scores against the predictions of the Simple Sequencing Method to see how many physical links are falling into extra-terrestrial, tie and home wins predictions.